Strategy in Strange Times

I’ve had the privilege of working with many professional firms and community organizations in strategic planning -- the process of choosing a preferred future among many possible paths. 

It is natural to look toward our future through the lens of our present reality.  In classical planning jargon, what are our present strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?  Even in a scenario planning approach, where we’re asked to imagine ourselves in very different situations, the scenarios we construct are usually variations of our present circumstances – variations on what we know or know about.

This a difficult challenge in today’s unstable, unpredictable, and fast-changing world. Our present context is being threatened and disrupted on all sides. We can’t rely on familiar principles, institutions, and industries as the foundation for creative new strategies.  They may be gone before our clever plans are complete. Key assumptions about markets, clients, and competition may quickly become obsolete.

These are strange and unprecedented times for organizations of all kinds.  Why?  Extreme polarization in views on almost any subject, conflicting versions of basic truths,   elective wars among nations, economic uncertainty that leaders are making worse, resurgence of ethnic and racial bias, incoherent public policy, obvious impacts of climate change everywhere, and inconsistent support for advances in science and technology. 

As we try to plan today for an unpredictable future, we simply can’t know what we don’t know.  My friend and colleague Bill Valentine, longtime chairman of HOK, often quoted Louis Pasteur: “chance favors the prepared mind.”  I suggest a few steps to help prepare the collective mind of any organization:

  • Refine and affirm the organization’s basic values.  These must be authentic, personal, and rigorously applied in broad strategies and everyday decisions.  Leadership behavior reflecting those values will shape a strong and resilient culture.

  • Develop a strong organizational vision: what do we aspire to be, or become, that’s different than what we are today?  How would we like to be able to describe ourselves five or ten years from now?

  • Build the organization’s capacity to lead change, beyond managing its current operations.  This usually means distributing leadership responsibility among more capable people – and developing new leaders to meet the challenge.

  • Encourage curiosity and experimentation, so that your organization is open to new opportunities and can act on good opportunities that arise.  This requires supportive leadership and a supportive structure.

  • Demonstrate transparency in sharing information and ideas at every level of the organization.  The most talented young people want to understand what they’re part of, how things work, and how they can contribute – particularly in uncertain times.

These ideas, applied in a thoughtful strategic planning process, can help build a stronger organization that can thrive – not just survive – in these strange times.  I look forward to your thoughts.

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