A leadership team sees a forecast for stronger commercial construction and starts discussing a new market. The headline sounds encouraging. The detail changes the conversation.
In its July 2026 Consensus Construction Forecast, AIA projected a 4.8% increase in commercial building spending for 2026. Excluding data centers, the panel expected a 1% decline. A firm without relevant data center expertise would draw a different conclusion from the same commercial-growth headline.
Before leaders use a forecast to guide growth, they need to see what is driving the overall number and whether it reflects work their firm could realistically pursue.
Look inside the forecast
AIA July 2026 forecast 2026 2027
Commercial building spending +4.8% +5.8%
Commercial spending excluding data centers -1% +1%
AIA also projected data center spending to grow 33% in 2026 and about 25% in 2027. These are forecasts of construction spending, not observed growth or a count of projects available to a particular firm. The gap between the two commercial outlooks tells leaders which part of the market deserves closer examination.
Ask what the number measures
Construction spending reflects work put in place. An owner’s proposed capital budget, a signed design contract, and construction underway are different points in a project’s life. Compare like with like, and ask how much time may pass before a broad spending forecast translates into an opportunity for your team.
Check whether the work is within reach
Break the outlook down by project type and geography. Then look for evidence closer to the decision: approved funding, local procurement plans, client conversations, and your firm’s experience with the work. A strong national data center forecast, for example, does not establish that an owner in your region will select a new partner.
If signals align, leaders can decide whether to build a relationship, strengthen a partnership, or develop a specific capability. If they conflict, the next step may be an interview or a pause in investment. Set a date to revisit the evidence as projects and forecasts change.
What headline about your market deserves a closer look at what is driving the number? If a forecast is shaping your firm’s next move, reach out to Larisa to examine what it means for the clients you serve and the opportunities you are positioned to pursue.
Larisa Forester Gilday, CPSM, Assoc. AIA, is a principal consultant with Cameron MacAllister Group. With a background in architecture and an MS in Marketing, she advises AEC firms on market intelligence, marketing and business development, and strategic growth. Her perspective draws on dozens of market studies and hundreds of interviews with owners and industry professionals.